Of Vicissitude Of Things
論世界的變遷
SOLOMON saith, There is no new thing upon the earth. So that as Plato had an imagination, That all knowledge was but remembrance; so Solomon giveth his sentence, That all novelty is but oblivion. Whereby you may see, that the river of Lethe runneth as well above ground as below.
所羅門說：“地球上沒有新事物”。甚至，柏拉圖這樣遐想：“一切知識都只是舊事物的記憶”；所羅門也說過幾乎同樣的話：“一切新事物都只是舊事物的遺忘”。由此可見，“冥河”或“忘川”，不僅存在于地府，而且存在人間。
There is an abstruse astrologer that saith, If it were not for two things that are constant (the one is, that the fixed stars ever stand a like distance one from another, and never come nearer together, nor go further asunder; the other, that the diurnal motion perpetually keepeth time), no individual would last one moment. Certain it is, that the mat-ter is in a perpetual flux, and never at a stay. The great winding-sheets, that bury all things in ob-livion, are two; deluges and earthquakes. As for conflagrations and great droughts, they do not merely dispeople and destroy. Phaeton's car went but a day. And the three years' drought in the time of Elias, was but particular, and left people alive.
世界有兩樣東西是永恒的：其一、位置固定的星體之間距離永遠不變，既不靠近，也不離開；其二、它們每日的運動永遠遵守時間。有一位玄妙的星占家就說過：“要是沒有兩樣永恒的事物，那就沒有什么個體存在于瞬間”。萬物肯定處于永恒的流動中，從不停止。洪水和地震是席卷或埋葬一切事物的兩塊大的收尸布。至于火災和大旱，它們并不總是摧毀人類。法厄的車只走一天；而伊利亞時代的三年旱災是特殊現象，而且還是有人活下來。至于西印度常見的因雷電而引起的大火，燒毀的面積很有限。
但需要進一步指出，在洪水和地震所造成的兩種破壞中，劫后余生者通常是無知的山村野民，他們對過去一無所知，遺忘殆盡，那里好像沒有留下一個幸存者。
As for the great burnings by lightnings, which are often in the West Indies, they are but narrow. But in the other two destructions, by deluge and earth-quake, it is further to be noted, that the remnant of people which hap to be reserved, are commonly ignorant and mountainous people, that can give no account of the time past; so that the oblivion is all one, as if none had been left. If you consider well of the people of the West Indies, it is very probable that they are a newer or a younger peo-ple, than the people of the Old World. And it is much more likely, that the destruction that hath heretofore been there, was not by earthquakes (as the Egyptian priest told Solon concerning the island of Atlantis, that it was swallowed by an earthquake), but rather that it was desolated by a particular deluge. For earthquakes are seldom in those parts. But on the other side, they have such pouring rivers, as the rivers of Asia and Africk and Europe, are but brooks to them. Their Andes, like-wise, or mountains, are far higher than those with us; whereby it seems, that the remnants of gen-eration of men, were in such a particular deluge saved. As for the observation that Machiavel hath, that the jealousy of sects, doth much extinguish the memory of things; traducing Gregory the Great, that he did what in him lay, to extinguish all heathen antiquities; I do not find that those zeals do any great effects, nor last long; as it ap-peared in the succession of Sabinian, who did revive the former antiquities. The vicissitude of mutations in the superior globe, are no fit matter for this present argument.
如果你研究西印度人，他們很可能比先人進步和年輕。（注7）那里的破壞也不像是由于地震造成，（如埃及祭司對梭倫說的：“大西島被地震吞沒。”）其荒蕪的現狀更像是由于特大的洪水。因為這些地區很少地震。但另一方面，這些地區有如此浩瀚的水域，非亞洲、非洲和歐洲那樣的大江大河可比，后者只如同一條條小溪。安第斯山之類山脈也比我們這里的高得多；看來那一代人的幸存者是靠著這些高山才在如此特殊的洪水中獲救。至于馬奇維爾的看法，我不敢茍同；他說什么宗派之間的嫉妒導致大量文物的遺忘，甚至污蔑格利葛里教皇盡力毀掉了異教的一切古跡；但我看不出教皇這種宗教狂熱能起多大作用，而且也沒有維持多久；看來薩比尼安即位后就恢復了這些古跡。天體運動的變化完全不適合在本文討論。
It may be, Plato's great year, if the world should last so long, would have some effect; not in renew-ing the state of like individuals (for that is the fume of those, that conceive the celestial bodies have more accurate influences upon these things below, than indeed they have), but in gross. Comets, out of question, have likewise power and effect, over the gross and mass of things; but they are rather gazed upon, and waited upon in their journey, than wisely observed in their effects; specially in, their respective effects; that is, what kind of comet, for magnitude, color, version of the beams, plac-ing in the reign of heaven, or lasting, produceth what kind of effects.
如果世界會持續存在很長時間，那么柏拉圖的“大年說”可能有所應驗——但不是在某些個人身上（因為這些人狂言，天體對他們的外在環境具有明顯的影響），而是對整個地球體，慧星對事物的整體與質量無疑具有這種類威力或作用；但人們更多地注視與期待慧星的運行過程，卻較少聰明地觀察慧星的作用，如何種慧星產生何種作用，特別是慧星的大小、顏色、光線的變化、在天上的位置、持續的時間等有關方面。
There is a toy which I have heard, and I would not have it given over, but waited upon a little. They say it is observed in the Low Countries (I know not in what part) that every five and thirty years, the same kind and suit of years and weath-ers come about again; as great frosts, great wet, great droughts, warm winters, summers with little heat, and the like; and they call it the Prime. It is a thing I do the rather mention, because, comput-ing backwards, I have found some concurrence.
至今還可以聽到有人閑聊，但引起了我的注意，他們說低地三國（我不知道是哪一部分）發現這樣的情況：每隔三十五年，重來一次同樣的年景和天氣；如大的冰凍，大的潮濕，大的旱災，溫暖的冬天，不熱的夏天，諸如此類；——他們稱之為輪回（或譯“周而復始”）的“頂點”。我之所以愿意提及此事，是因為我也計算出這種巧合。
But to leave these points of nature, and to come to men. The greatest vicissitude of things amongst men, is the vicissitude of sects and religions. For those orbs rule in men's minds most. The true re-ligion is built upon the rock; the rest are tossed, upon the waves of time. To speak, therefore, of the causes of new sects; and to give some counsel con-cerning them, as far as the weakness of human judgment can give stay, to so great revolutions.
還是離開自然回到人間。宗教及其宗派導致人世間的變遷；因為這些“天體”主宰人心。真正的宗教堅如磐石，其他的宗教風雨飄搖（或直譯：真正的宗教建立在礁石上，其他的宗教在時代的風浪里顛簸）。因此，盡管對于這樣偉大的變革，人的理智顯得單薄無力，但我不揣冒昧，討論一下新宗教產生的原因，并提出一些相關的建議。
When the religion formerly received, is rent by discords; and when the holiness of the professors of religion, is decayed and full of scandal; and withal the times be stupid, ignorant, and bar-barous; you may doubt the springing up of a new sect; if then also, there should arise any extrava-gant and strange spirit, to make himself author thereof. All which points held, when Mahomet published his law. If a new sect have not two prop-erties, fear it not; for it will not spread. The one is the supplanting, or the opposing, of authority es-tablished; for nothing is more popular than that. The other is the giving license to pleasures, and a voluptuous life. For as for speculative heresies (such as were in ancient times the Arians, and now the Armenians), though they work mightily upon men's wits, yet they do not produce any great al-terations in states; except it be by the help of civil occasions. There be three manner of plantations of new sects. By the power of signs and miracles; by the eloquence, and wisdom, of speech and persua-sion; and by the sword. For martyrdoms, I reckon them amongst miracles; because they seem to ex-ceed the strength of human nature: and I may do the like, of superlative and admirable holiness of life. Surely there is no better way, to stop the rising of new sects and schisms, than to reform abuses; to compound the smaller differences; to proceed mildly, and not with sanguinary persecutions; and rather to take off the principal authors by win-ning and advancing them, than to enrage them by violence and bitterness.
當原來的宗教因爭吵而分裂，當教主們（或譯“宗教職業家們”）的神圣日益衰落，怪事層出不窮；并且世風日下，人們愚昧、無知、野蠻；——新的宗派就要興起。這時，某人將發表一種新奇的過激的教義，并自認教主，（原文省略了一句。譯者注）。如果新的教派沒有如下兩個特點，就不用害怕，因為它不能傳播。其一、取代或反對原有的權威，因為這最能煽動人心；其二、允許教徒吃喝玩樂，生活放蕩。因為異端邪說（原文括號里的一句省略。譯者注）雖然能蠱惑人心，卻不能給國家造成大亂，除非它借助政治事件。新教派的建立靠三種手段：符咒與奇跡的力量，演講、說教的口才和智慧，手中的寶劍。我把殉教的行為看成一種奇跡，因為它似乎超出了人性；我把生活至高無尚的圣潔也看成一種奇跡。阻止宗教分裂和新教興起的最好辦法，肯定是改革舊的弊病，調和較小的分歧，溫和地前進，而不采取****；此外，宜用爭取和提拔教主們的辦法收服他們，而不是用暴力和傷痛激怒他們。
The changes and vicissitude in wars are many; but chiefly in three things; in the seats or stages of the war; in the weapons; and in the manner of the conduct. Wars, in ancient time, seemed more to move from east to west; for the Persians, Assyrians, Arabians, Tartars (which were the invaders) were all eastern people. It is true, the Gauls were west-ern; but we read but of two incursions of theirs: the one to Gallo-Grecia, the other to Rome. But east and west have no certain points of heaven; and no more have the wars, either from the east or west, any certainty of observation. But north and south are fixed; and it hath seldom or never been seen that the far southern people have invaded the northern, but contrariwise. Whereby it is manifest that the northern tract of the world, is in nature the more martial region: be it in respect of the stars of that hemisphere; or of the great continents that are upon the north, whereas the south part, for aught that is known, is almost all sea; or (which is most apparent) of the cold of the northern parts, which is that which, without aid of discipline, doth make the bodies hardest, and the courages warmest.
戰爭對世界變遷的影響是多方面的；但主要在三方面：戰場和戰區，武器的變化，戰爭進行的方式。在古代，戰爭看來多從東往西進行，因為波斯人、亞述人、阿拉伯人、韃靼人（他們是侵略者）都是東方人。的確，高盧人是西方人，但我們只讀過他們的兩次侵略：一次對加拉格拉西；一次對羅馬。但東方和西方在天上沒有固定點，因此再也不該說戰爭來自東方還是西方，這樣的說法再也無法固定。但北方和南方是固定的；而且很少或從未見到遙遠的南方人進犯過北方人，而只是相反。這就表明：世界的北方本性上是比較好戰的地區——這可能與北半球的諸星宿有關，或者與地球北部的各大陸有關；而世界的南部，大家知道，幾乎全是海洋；或者北方的冷（這是最明顯的原因），不用訓練與紀律，就能使人身強體壯，勇敢頑強。
Upon the breaking and shivering of a great state and empire, you may be sure to have wars. For great empires, while they stand, do enervate and destroy the forces of the natives which they have subdued, resting upon their own protecting forces; and then when they fail also, all goes to ruin, and they become a prey. So was it in the decay of the Roman empire; and likewise in the empire of Almaigne, after Charles the Great, every bird tak-ing a feather; and were not unlike to befall to Spain, if it should break. The great accessions and unions of kingdoms, do likewise stir up wars; for when a state grows to an over-power, it is like a great flood, that will be sure to overflow. As it hath been seen in the states of Rome, Turkey, Spain, and others. Look when the world hath fewest bar-barous peoples, but such as commonly will not marry or generate, except they know means to live (as it is almost everywhere at this day, except Tar-tary), there is no danger of inundations of people; but when there be great shoals of people, which go on to populate, without foreseeing means of life and sustentation, it is of necessity that once in an age or two, they discharge a portion of their people upon other nations; which the ancient northern people were wont to do by lot; casting lots what part should stay at home, and what should seek their fortunes. When a warlike state grows soft and effeminate, they may be sure of a war. For com-monly such states are grownm rich in the time of their degenerating; and so the prey inviteth, and their decay in valor, encourageth a war.
大國或帝國破裂瓦解之際，無疑是戰爭爆發之時。因為當偉大帝國雄踞天下，肯定要依靠自己的防衛力量，削弱和摧毀被它臣服的當地武裝；等到帝國衰落, 土崩瓦解，，它也變成被掠奪的獵物。羅馬帝國的衰落就是這樣；加洛林帝國在查理大帝之后同樣也分崩離析（或譯“作鳥獸散”）。如果西班牙將分裂，也難免是同樣的命運。王國之間的兼并和聯合同樣也會挑起戰爭。因為一個國家變得過分強大（或譯“變成超級大國”），就一定會像洪水，泛濫成災。羅馬、土耳其、西班牙、以及其他國家也見到這種情況。
如果當今世界已經很少野蠻民族，而這樣的民族又普遍不愿結婚生育（除了韃靼，這種情況今天幾乎到處都是），那就沒有人口泛濫的危險；但世界有大量大量的人口，而且繼續大量增加，而他們卻看不見生存的手段，因此每隔一、兩個年代（age），必須把一部分人轉移到別的國家；這種做法，古代的北方民族習慣用抽簽來確定哪部分留在家，哪部分出外尋找幸福。當一個好戰的國家變得軟弱可欺，它肯定要有戰爭了。因為這樣的國家在衰落時期變得富裕，更易成為獵人的對象，而他們的士氣低落，更促使別國發動戰爭。
As for the weapons, it hardly falleth under rule and observation: yet we see even they, have re-turns and vicissitudes. For certain it is, that ord-nance was known in the city of the Oxidrakes in India; and was that, which the Macedonians called thunder and lightning, and magic. And it is well known that the use of ordnance, hath been in China above two thousand years. The conditions of weapons, and their improvement, are; First, the fetching afar off; for that outruns the danger; as it is seen in ordnance and muskets. Secondly, the strength of the percussion; wherein likewise ord-nance do exceed all arietations and ancient inven-tions. The third is, the commodious use of them; as that they may serve in all weathers; that the car-riage may be light and manageable; and the like.
至于武器，幾乎無規則可以研究，然而我們可以回顧武器的過去和演變。現在可以肯定，火炮早在印度奧克斯拉斯市就已出現；而馬其頓人也曾經把火炮稱作雷電和魔法。眾所周知，兩千多年前中國就使用了火炮。武器的狀況與改善有三點：第一、射程遠，避免（自己）危險；火炮與步槍就是這樣。第二、攻擊力：在這方面，火炮勝過類似武器所有的定位器和古代發明；第三、使用方便：可以在各種天氣使用，搬運輕便與操作簡易，等。
For the conduct of the war: at the first, men rested extremely upon number: they did put the wars likewise upon main force and valor; pointing days for pitched fields, and so trying it out upon an even match and they were more ignorant in ranging and arraying their battles. After, they grew to rest upon number rather competent, than vast; they grew to advantages of place, cunning diversions, and the like: and they grew more skil-ful in the ordering of their battles.
至于戰爭進行的方式，最初，人們完全依靠數量，他們主要靠兵力和士氣取勝；約定交戰的日期，爭取平等的競爭條件；對列兵布陣無知。后來，他們在依靠數量中逐漸學會重視戰斗力，逐漸學會利用地形地貌、機動靈活的戰術，等等；他們在指揮戰斗方面變得日益成熟。
In the youth of a state, arms do flourish; in the middle age of a state, learning; and then both of them together for a time; in the declining age of a state, mechanical arts and merchandize. Learning hath his infancy, when it is but beginning and almost childish; then his youth, when it is luxuri-ant and juvenile; then his strength of years, when it is solid and reduced; and lastly, his old age, when it waxeth dry and exhaust. But it is not good to look too long upon these turning wheels of vicissitude, lest we become giddy. As for the philology of them, that is but a circle of tales, and therefore not fit for this writing.
國家有自己的青年、中年、壯年和晚年。在青年擴軍備，在中年繁榮學術文化；文武昌盛的壯年之后是衰落的晚年，工業科技和商業貿易發達。學術文化也有自己的童年，如人生開始，幼稚可笑；然后是青年，血氣方剛，繁榮成熟；然后是壯年，年富力強，但銳氣日減；最后是老年，干瘦枯萎，精力衰竭。但我們不宜過久地注視世界這些轉動的車輪，以免頭暈眼花。至于語言學和文獻學的做法，只能引出一系列傳說，因此不適合本文。
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