A lot of people believe that the media controls the economy and the stock market. The more the media talks of trouble, the more trouble it will cause, because people would listen to them and pull their money out of the market. On the other hand, if the media starts talking about a boom period, everyone would hop on board and there actually would be a boom period.
很多人認為新聞媒介操縱著經濟和股市。新聞媒介越是大談經濟困難，它造成的困難就越多。這是因為人們會聽信媒體所言而撤出股市中的資金。另一方面，如果媒介大談經濟繁榮，那么人人都會在經濟大潮中激流勇進，從而造成真正的繁榮。
But most experts won't agree with these sentiments. The media haven't such kind of influence as to create either a bull market or a bear market. The economy is a mysterious thing and the stock market is, by nature, unpredictable. It's simply not true that the media creates econommic cycles.
但是，絕大多數專家不同意這種論調。新聞媒介的影響力并不足以造就牛市或熊市行情。經濟發展是個謎，而股市從定義上而言就是不可預測的。媒體能引發經濟周期的觀點根本就是不正確的。
A: I keep hearing all kinds of things about the stock market.
我總能聽說有關股市的各種事情。
B: Like what?
比方說?
A: Things like people using the media to create artificial buzz about a stock so as to drive up its price.
有人利用新聞媒體人為地制造有關個股的傳聞，為的是促使股價上漲。
B: They sure can do this. As a matter of fact, when fund managers appear on TV to talk about the stocks they like, they are usually pumping the securities they own.
他們當然可以這么干了!事實上，基金經理在電視上談論股票時，多半是在為他們自己手里的股票打氣。
A: I don't think they should do this. At least I think they can promote their stocks in more subtle ways than that.
我認為他們不應該這么做。至少，要宣傳自己的股票別這么明目張膽。
B: You are right. Sometimes analysts whisper to reparters and columnists what stocks they think are hot. If the journalist takes the bait, the stock usually gets a short-term pop.
你說得沒錯。有時候，股票分析師私下里把他們認為很熱門的股票悄悄透露給記者和專欄作家。如果記者們上鉤，這些股票通常就會有一波短線上漲行情。
A: I know. I've heard stories of CEOs leaking important to newspapers or reporters obviously to give their stock a boost.
這我知道。我還聽說有的公司老總把重要的信息泄露給報紙或記者，以推進他們公司的股票價格上漲。
B: But it is usually the bull market that creates the explosion of business news, not the other way around.
不過，通常是牛市行情才會引起業界新聞的爆炸，而不是熊市。
A: Yeah. When millions of average folks started making money as the market took off, the stock market and anyting connected with it become almost irresistible.
對。市場啟動，數以百萬計的老百姓都開始掙錢的時候，股市及其與之相關的一切都變得難以抗拒了。
B: Are you considering becoming one of these millions?
你是不是也考慮加入這數以百萬計的炒股大軍?
A: Not before I get to know enough about it. By the way, what stock do you think will be the best to invest in for this year?
那得等我對股市有足夠的了解再說。順便問問，你認為今年投資哪只股票最好呢?
B: One thing I don't do is to give stock advice.
我從來不推薦股票。
A: Why not?
這是為什么?
B: I have watchd the endless parade of experts give advice that often turns out to be wrong--how many people predicted the Nasdaq crash of last April?--I think the value of such tips is way overrated. The stock market is, by definition, unpredictable.
我目睹過無數的專家意見到頭來都是錯的——有幾個人預測出了納斯達克去年四月份的狂跌?從定義上而言，股市本來就是不可預測的。
A: What do you suggest then?
那么你的建議是?
B: My advice is to find companies you believe are solid for the long term and hold onto them. High-flying stocks that go up 200 or 300 percent in a day can plummet just as quickly.
我的建議是，找幾家你認為穩妥的上市公司，長線持股。那些一天之內飛漲兩、三百個點的高價股，一旦急跌起來，跌得一樣快。
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